Even although Hurricane Energy had promising exploration ends in UK’s fractured basins, power intelligence agency Rystad Energy believes that the nation’s hydrocarbon manufacturing would by no means rise above 2 million boepd once more.

Rystad stated on Thursday that hydrocarbon manufacturing on the
United Kingdom’s continental shelf (UKCS) dropped steadily since its peak at
four.three million barrels of oil equal per day (boepd) in 1999, by no means exceeding
2 million boepd after 2010.

Promising exploration outcomes by Hurricane Energy in
fractured basement reservoirs, beforehand untapped within the UK, had been till
earlier this yr anticipated to revive the nation’s output to 2.1 million boepd
by 2035. But based on Rystad Energy, these hopes have been dashed.

A latest jaw-dropping downgrade of Hurricane Energy’s Lancaster discipline revealed that the reservoir is extra advanced than beforehand thought. The result’s a drastic useful resource downgrade for the corporate’s whole asset portfolio, as all its assets lie in fractured basement reservoirs.

This is a significant blow to the outlook for the UK’s future petroleum manufacturing, as fractured basement assets had been estimated to account for almost one-fifth of the longer term oil and gasoline output from the UKCS”, the intelligence firm acknowledged.

Namely, Hurricane’s unaudited estimate of restoration from the 2 current Lancaster Early Production System wells has been lowered to 16.zero million barrels from 37.three million barrels. Since 6.6 million have already been produced by the top of August 2020, remaining reserves at 1 September 2020 are estimated at 9.four million barrels.

The estimate of 2C contingent assets at Lancaster has
been lowered to 58 million barrels remaining from 486 million barrels in a
report from 2017.

The downgrade has prompted Rystad Energy to revise its
manufacturing forecast for the UKCS. Projections now present that manufacturing will
by no means once more exceed the edge of two million boepd however will as a substitute attain a
most of 1.7 million boepd in 2035 earlier than dwindling to just about nothing by the
center of the century.

Rystad additionally stated that UKCS manufacturing stood at 1.65 million
boepd final yr and is ready to fall to 1.59 million boepd in 2020.

Source: Rystad
Source: Rystad

Olga Savenkova, upstream analyst at Rystad Energy, stated: “The whole UKCS long-term manufacturing forecast has been impacted fairly considerably. The predominant takeaway right here is that we might by no means once more see any vital manufacturing upsurge in UKCS manufacturing.

A doable game-changer might now solely be improvement of technical expertise for producing from fractured basement reservoirs to extend the restoration issue“.

Lancaster

Rystad acknowledged in its assertion that basement performs on the
UKCS had been largely ignored when it comes to analysis and funding till Hurricane
Energy emerged in 2004, based on the assumption that these advanced reservoir
programs had been a considerably untapped useful resource within the North Sea.

Hurricane first launched into an exploration marketing campaign to show
the producibility of the Lancaster fractured basement and has since introduced
sturdy outcomes of greater than 2 billion barrels of oil equal (boe) in
fractured basement reservoir assets believed to be found.

In flip, Lancaster grew to become the UK’s first fractured basement
discipline in 2015. The reservoir is penetrated by six wells, the primary of which was
drilled in 1974. This first effectively encountered oil within the basement reservoir, however
because the basement was not the drilling goal the potential was discounted on the
time.

In 2009, Hurricane started an exploration marketing campaign to show
the producibility of the Lancaster fractured basement. Since then, Hurricane drilled
11 wells and introduced 4 fractured basement discoveries – Lancaster,
Lincoln, Halifax, and Warwick West. Hurricane is to date the one firm within the
UK that has drilled right into a fractured basement.

Lancaster scheme; Source: Hurricane Energy
Lancaster scheme; Source: Hurricane Energy

The Lancaster early manufacturing system was introduced on stream in 2019. However,…

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